The Bubble of New Apartments Keeps Expanding

These are happy days if you’re hoping to buy an apartment in New York City. On the heels of recent reports that sellers are slashing prices more furiously than at any point since the nadir of the Great Recession, there comes a new report that there are 33,000 apartments in the Manhattan development pipeline, Crain’s reports. The new units are slated to arrive as demand for newly developed product continues to soften. Put another way, a market saturated with supply is about to get even more saturated. 

New units are expected to be concentrated in three areas, according to the report by the Marketing Directors, a new-development marketing firm: in and around the massive Hudson Yards project on the West Side of Manhattan; East Harlem; and the Lower East Side.

The firm predicts that between 4,600 and 5,300 units will be delivered each year between 2019 and 2021. That relative stability is the result of high land prices and the growing reluctance of banks to lend to residential projects. Also, the flow of foreign investment in high-end condo projects has dwindled. 

"Developers today are much more hesitant, and there is a much longer due-diligence period prior to them proceeding with a project," says Jacqueline Urgo, president of the Marketing Directors. 

The drying up of foreign investment is expected to hit especially hard on Billionaires’ Row and other high-dollar condo enclaves. "I think they are going to find themselves in a lot of trouble," says Andrew Gerringer, managing director of new business development for the marketing firm. 

However, the Marketing Directors said that there is still a healthy demand for lower priced homes, and that even with more rentals and condos hitting the market in the coming years, appropriately priced product will still sell.