Every year without doubt this subject comes up. To be or not to be, that is the question, the bottom line is that any cap or pre buying scenario involves speculation. As in any speculative market there is risk. You are either the hero or the donkey when you sign for this agreement. I have been both donkey and hero, let me tell you first hand last years hero says nothing to this years donkey, so much for short memories.

Here is a new slant on this dilema, contact you local oil suppliers and ask for a rate keyed to the barge reseller index, your supplier will offer a percentage above this FIXED and POSTED rate (on the Journal of Commerce)number, you can use this as an effective tool to obtain price quotes on your fuel oil

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It's all a ball game. The good thing about locking prices is that you will know what your budget will be during the heating months or during the time your contract lasts. However, it's hard to lock the prices much in advance because of the market volatility.

Just read and follow the forcast provided by EIA to have a better idea of what is an uncertain world, then roll the dice and make a decision. You may be lucky or you may not be as lucky, but at least you made a decision on best available knowledge for your shareholders if it goes the wrong way:

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip.asp

Also, the new york mercantile exchange is a good page to check for current and past prices. I believe the webside is

http://www.nymex.com

Good luck with your decision!

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